Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period July 2022 through June 2023 include the Yangtze River Basin and Southeast China, North Africa, and Europe. Areas of significant water surplus include Pakistan, India, and Southeast Asia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 6 October 2022.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period June 2022 through May 2023 include: Europe, North Africa, Chile, the Yangtze River Basin, Venezuela, and California & Nebraska (US). Areas of significant water surplus include: Pakistan, India, Cambodia, and Northeast China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 6 September 2022.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period May 2022 through April 2023 include: Europe, northwest Africa, Chile, Mexico, and California & Texas (US). Areas of significant water surplus include: China, India, Pakistan, Russia, Colombia, and North Dakota (US). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 5 August 2022.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period April 2022 through March 2023 include: Chile, California, Quebec, North Africa, and Europe. Areas of significant water surplus include: Southern China, Bangladesh, European Russia, Eastern Cape (South Africa), and North Dakota (US). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 5 July 2022.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period March 2022 through February 2023 include: Chile, California, Quebec, France, and Estonia. Areas of significant water surplus include: North Dakota, eastern Australia, Java, China, European Russia, and Tanzania. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 6 June 2022.
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