Exceptional water surpluses will retreat but widespread surpluses will persist in European Russia and in parts of Central and Eastern Europe. Surpluses will emerge in southern Norway and northern Sweden. Intense deficits will persist in Estonia, Latvia, central Finland, and central Sweden. Deficits in southern France and the Mediterranean are expected to moderate but severe deficits will continue in Portugal, and deficits will emerge in Albania and eastern Greece. After April, much of Central and Eastern Europe will transition away from surplus to moderate deficit, joining southern Europe.
Europe: Water surplus to persist in Ireland, Central Europe, & European Russia
The forecast indicates a transition in April to water deficits across much of Europe, but until then widespread surpluses will persist in Northern, Central, Eastern Europe, and European Russia and are expected to be exceptional in Russia, northern Poland, northwestern Ireland, and along the Dnieper River in Ukraine. Deficits will continue to emerge in Southern Europe, particularly the Iberian Peninsula, but will retreat significantly in France, persisting only along the southern coast. Intense deficits will emerge in Crimea, and will persist in northern Finland and northern Norway.
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List January 2018
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2017 through September 2018 include: Missouri (US), Brazil, Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Turkmenistan, Inner Mongolia (China), and South Australia and Tasmania (Australia). Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Ireland, Poland, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 January 2018.
Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook for January 2018
Europe: Water surpluses to spread in Central Europe, esp Poland
The extent of exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably through February in Southern Europe leaving primarily moderate deficits on the Iberian Peninsula, France, and Italy, with more intense deficits in southeastern France. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in western European Russia and Poland and will emerge in Belarus. Surpluses of varying severity will emerge in greater extent in Central and Eastern Europe. After February the extent and intensity of surpluses in Russia, Central, and Eastern Europe will diminish but surpluses will remain intense in central Poland.