Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
Though water surpluses are forecast for many parts of the region through February, exceptional deficits will persist in Cambodia through May. Exceptional surpluses are forecast to persist through February in Laos and in central Vietnam through May. Surpluses of lesser severity are forecast for the next three months in the southern Malay Peninsula, Java, southern Vietnam, and Gorontalo, Indonesia.
Though water surpluses are forecast for many parts of the region through January, exceptional deficits will persist in Cambodia through April. Surpluses are forecast through January in Laos, southern Vietnam, Java, Flores Island, eastern Borneo, Mindanao, and western Luzon, which may be exceptional in some areas. With the exception of the Philippines, many parts of the region will transition to water deficits from February through April.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist in Cambodia through May. From September through November deficits will continue to emerge in Thailand and the eastern half of Luzon, Philippines. Surpluses are forecast in Laos, western Flores Island, Vietnam, Sumatra, Java, North Kalimantan, West Papua, and northern Luzon. By December, however, much of the region will begin to transition to water deficits of varying severity which will persist through May.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: Ohio, Pennsylvania, the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers, southern Mexico, Chile, Central and Eastern Europe, North Africa, Zambia, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Siberia, Gujarat, Cambodia, South Korea, and Tasmania. Water surpluses are forecast for: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Louisiana; Paraguay; European Russia and the Volga Basin; the Chambal, Yamuna, and Ganges Rivers in India; Bangladesh; western Myanmar; Laos; and the Yellow, Yangtze, and Pearl Rivers in China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 September 2016.
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